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Think tank games out how to respond to disaster scenarios in space warfare

"Where does the threshold live that an action necessitates some proportional reaction?"

This article was originally published by Ars Technica and is republished here under license.

Imagine this: The US military begins tracking a mysterious spacecraft maneuvering near one of the Space Force’s missile-warning satellites more than 22,000 miles over the equator.

This US satellite cost several billion dollars to build and launch. It’s one of a handful of sentinels keeping constant watch for ballistic missile launches that might threaten the US homeland or US military bases overseas. Suddenly, this missile warning satellite goes dark. Ground controllers at a military base just outside of Denver scramble to figure out what went wrong.

There are two possibilities. Perhaps the mystery spacecraft lurking nearby somehow disabled or destroyed it, or as sometimes happens in the unforgiving environment of space, something important broke on the satellite, rendering it unresponsive. If the former, was it an intentional attack or an accident? Who carried it out and why? If the latter, how might controllers reactivate the satellite?

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